Legarda's announcement and Its Effects in Phil Politics

Loren Legarda just announced her intention to run for the presidency. However, what is important to know is she's only aligning with former president Joseph Estrada. Now, the question is---will Estrada allow her to be his party's standard bearer?

Estrada, sources say, is psychologically and logistically prepared for the elections. In fact, he already activated his JEEP NI ERAP. Will he allow his supporters to accept Legarda as the party's presidential bet?

Legarda's announcement is actually a tactical move. It secured Loren's position since she's the first one to actually make herself available for the opposition selection process. Now, whether its Estrada-Legarda or Legarda-Estrada, there is now, at least three (3) opposition groups, namely Mar Roxas' Liberal Party and Nacionalista's Manuel Villar. Aside from this, Kaya Natin! Movement also expressed their desire to field their own presidential candidate. There's another one in the wings, the Ang Kapatiran party.

Provided that Ang Kapatiran and Kaya Natin! get at least 1% of total votes, that is still critical in a multi-party election.

Of course, not to mention the Nationalist People's Coalition or NPC whose ranks are slowly swelling with former Lakas-Kampi members, courtesy of former Lakas giant Luis Villafuerte. With Loren's pronouncement, who will then be Chiz Escudero's running mate? Would it now be a merger between Nacionalista and NPC, with Villar just sliding down to V-P? If such a merger does indeed happen, that would be most beneficial for the opposition although not enough to actually defeat a unified administration political force in 2010.

Mar Roxas also suffers from the same dilemma like Chiz. Mar, sources say, is convincing Senator Kiko Pangilinan as running mate, which, for all intents and purposes, is the most logical move since Kiko has his own strong grassroots based organization. That would be a formidable plus factor for Mar. That would propel the Liberal Party to be THE party to beat come 2010 elections.

Now, is it consolation enough to know that even the administration side is being wracked by dissension and a possible breakaway? For one, there's at least four personalities being considered as administration bet---Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro, Noli de Castro, Richard Gordon and Bayani Fernando. Both Teodoro and de Castro already announced their readiness to launch their individual bids. While Gordon says he's prepared to be included in the Lakas-Kampi coalition while Fernando seems determined to do his own thing just to pursue his ridiculous and psychotic political plan.

Anyway, the Lakas-Kampi faces a prospect of a breakaway party coming from either one of Teodoro's or Noli de Castro's camps. Since the prospect of electing a minority president looms on the horizon, another political party will actually do more good than harm for the administration. That would disperse their chances of winning and breaking more of the opposition bailiwicks.

So, what is now the expected political configuration come 2010 elections?

First, a minority president is sure to be elected, provided that Estrada recovers his old and traditional mass base. That is still very much around. That, however, would only happen IF Erap's group marginalize the grassroots organizers of other parties, like those of the Liberal, NPC and Nacionalista. If that happens, then, victory for Erap is very much assured.

Second, if Erap's party fails to do that, then, that would only give Erap a slim chance of winning the elections. That would open the possibility of either Chiz or Mar Roxas snatching victory from Erap.

Third, if the political grassroots machinery of both Chiz and Mar do nor perform at par with Erap's and Lakas-Kampi, then, the possibility of Gilbert Teodoro emerging from the woodwork is very high. Teodoro could squeak a victory under the opposition rug. Remember that in these elections, if these parties match in terms of grassroots organizing, then, the battlefield will shift from mass base support to how extensive their network of generals is. That would be the definitive advantage of the administration party.