Gilbert Teodoro's replacement and palace moves

Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro has become a political liability, says a very close palace associate of Philippine president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

First, he's a professional. Second, he seems to have developed quite a nationalist streak, different from the official yet unwritten ideological platform of fascism of Mrs. Arroyo. And lastly, he already has his own supporters from the military, a very solid one, composed not just active members but also retired generals.

Former Senator Frank Drilon's revelation seems to jibe with information about Gibo's possible "re-assignment" to the justice porfolio. Teodoro has made public his opposition to any declaration of a state of emergency or martial rule. He vowed yesterday to stand up against it, which is quite surprising since this is not the official palace policy. Whenever the issue crops up, palace officials keep or refuse to say anything for or against it, meaning, that the palace is keeping its options open for this.

Aside from this, what caused the silent rumblings inside began when Gibo celebrated his birthday. From the purview of Arroyo's closest advisers, that one was a virtual Munich Putsch. It came a few weeks after the visit of US Defense secretary Robert Gates. Gates, as you know, gave Teodoro a very favorable endorsement, which some palace insiders interpreted as a direct message to the palace to push ahead of the elections. That differs from the previous plan of some of Arroyo's closest advisers who are pushing for a term extension. Remember that that was the time when Arroyo's lieutenants were actively networking for signatures for House Resolution 1109. Gates, the highest Obama official to visit the Philippines first, was quite emphatic when he told the official Washington line, which, a few days ago, was reiterated by US ambassador Kristie Kenney. Some interpreted it as an expression of concern and shows that Washington knows what some palace people are thinking.

Close Arroyo insiders think that if push comes to shove, Washington will endorse Teodoro as an alternative "transition" leader in case Arroyo falls from power. This is a strong possibility, given that Teodoro enjoys the support both of active and retired AFP and PNP generals.

This prospect is not being welcomed inside the palace. Arroyo has this tendency to be "extra jealous" when it comes to "sharing power". In fact, Arroyo always wants to be the center of power. That's why, at the very beginning of her regime, she instituted a policy (unwritten) of appointing close associates to different departments while tolerating political appointees. Arroyo's leadership style is both anachronistic and practical.

People close to Arroyo knows that it would be quite hard to ease Teodoro out of the defense portfolio, because of Danding Cojuangco. There's always a solution though.

Bombings and instability. This solves the problem. Malacanang can use this as a ruse to justify former General Hermogenes Ebdane's transfer from DPWH to the defense department.

With Ebdane at the helm of defense, that would allow more space for the PMA Class of 1978 to move or maneuver to highly sensitive posts within the AFP and the PNP. There's a clincher though---that would open the military establishment to more personal appointments instead of professional ones.

And even fan the flames of more adventurism within.