Chiz Escudero's resignation: The True Story

Let's face it---the primary reasons behind Chiz Escudero's decision to resign are: he lacks the funds after his big-ticket financiers withdrew and he is being weakened by defections.

Faced with this prospect, what do you think would an astute politician like Escudero will do?

First, he needs to assess the cause of these defections, both organizationally and financially. Admit it---his ratings went down when Senator Noynoy Aquino entered the political fray. His ratings actually plateued and began to nose-dive when Noynoy's name was included in those whom people chose as Gloria's successor. Why the sudden decrease in ratings?

Two things which hurt Escudero: rumours of a merger of the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) and the administration and Escudero's association with Marcos crony, Danding Cojuangco. Signs of a merger began to percolate as early as August, after government asked the Supreme Court to convert coco levy shares at SMC from ordinary to preferred shares.

With the prospects of a merger, that, surely will completely turn off progressive groups supportive of Chiz Escudero's. Defections began to hurt Escudero's camp, particularly that of the Osmenas who transferred to Noynoy's camp. Osmena reportedly transferred after getting signs that Danding was half-supportive of Escudero's bid. Osmena also took the cue from Lucio Tan about Escudero being "young" and " still unprepared for the presidency." That intensified defections, especially of financiers from the Filipino-Chinese community.

With his organization hemorrhaging from a series of defections, what was left with Chiz was minority political power brokers. He completely lost his mass base support. With the loss of mass base support, that made an impact below ground, reflecting in the surveys. With ratings showing signs of plateau-ing and even nose-diving, that sent a very bad signal for financiers.

Problems began to take a very serious turn when financiers withdrew. To arrest the further slide down, the NPC opened itself up to more serious negotiations with the administration party.  The NPC began dictating terms with the Escudero camp.

Faced with defections and lack of finances, Escudero opened itself up to the Panfilo Ping Lacson group. When NPC learned about this, the party further upped the ante, publicly announcing a Chiz Escudero-Loren Legarda teamup. NPC did that as deference to Escudero not to lose face. Yet, behind the scenes, NPC was actually maneuvering to isolate and delimit Escudero because with him still in the picture, the possible merger between the party and Lakas-KAMPI will not succeed.

Escudero took the cue from Loren Legarda's refusal to name her presidential bet as a sign that the NPC and the administration continues to talk about a coalition. Not to be outmaneuvered, Chiz has no choice but to resign from the party and declare himself a "free agent."

By doing so, Chiz hopes to re-consolidate his mass base support by positioning himself as a non-traditional politician, someone not beholden to any political party nor any big political financier. His resignation can be interpreted as a tactical retreat, a pause so to speak, to arrest further hemorrhaging both in the organizational as well as the financial levels.

Now positioned as a non-trapo presidential bet, Chiz hopes to marshall all progressive groups behind his candidacy, make a movement out of it and get a ratings boost. He needs a shot in the arm, so to speak.

A ratings boost will give his candidacy a fresh start. It will also attract progressives once more, present to them a possibility of forming a third force that would neutralize an Estrada restoration or a Manny Villar win and steal the rug beneath Noynoy's feet. The resignation hopes to encourage groups supportive of Noynoy to abandon the Liberals and shift their support to Chiz Escudero. Doing so would give Chiz a fresh army of volunteers and potential financiers who does not totally support Noynoy's bid, disdain Erap's and fear Villar's camp.

Now, it remains to be seen if this tactical move will benefit Chiz Escudero. His resignation is a veritable clarion call for all progresives to support him. With the prospects still not entirely clear, that is the real reason why Chiz refuses to declare his bid. That signals to everybody that Escudero's organization is really hurting. In the next few days, we will see if Escudero's resignation would even amount to anything.

What if Escudero fails to urge groups to gravitate behind him?

He will probably proceed just to spite, weaken and split Estrada's constituency (that's the reason why Lacson's camp aligned itself with the Escudero camp).

Possible scenarios/results of Escudero's resignation:

1. NPC and admin party will now have full rein for a merger. The possibility of Teodoro-Legarda tandem is now in the works.
2. The Liberal Party will move to convince Chiz to either endorse Noynoy's bid or ask him to join the process of selecting the true People's choice of a non-trapo candidate.
3. Should Chiz proceed as an independent candidate, he will damage Estrada's bid, weaken Noynoy's mass base and eventually allow Manny Villar's victory in the 2010 polls.