Let's face it---the primary reasons behind Chiz Escudero's decision to resign are: he lacks the funds after his big-ticket financiers withdrew and he is being weakened by defections.
Faced with this prospect, what do you think would an astute politician like Escudero will do?
First, he needs to assess the cause of these defections, both organizationally and financially. Admit it---his ratings went down when Senator Noynoy Aquino entered the political fray. His ratings actually plateued and began to nose-dive when Noynoy's name was included in those whom people chose as Gloria's successor. Why the sudden decrease in ratings?
Two things which hurt Escudero: rumours of a merger of the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) and the administration and Escudero's association with Marcos crony, Danding Cojuangco. Signs of a merger began to percolate as early as August, after government asked the Supreme Court to convert coco levy shares at SMC from ordinary to preferred shares.
With the prospects of a merger, that, surely will completely turn off progressive groups supportive of Chiz Escudero's. Defections began to hurt Escudero's camp, particularly that of the Osmenas who transferred to Noynoy's camp. Osmena reportedly transferred after getting signs that Danding was half-supportive of Escudero's bid. Osmena also took the cue from Lucio Tan about Escudero being "young" and " still unprepared for the presidency." That intensified defections, especially of financiers from the Filipino-Chinese community.
With his organization hemorrhaging from a series of defections, what was left with Chiz was minority political power brokers. He completely lost his mass base support. With the loss of mass base support, that made an impact below ground, reflecting in the surveys. With ratings showing signs of plateau-ing and even nose-diving, that sent a very bad signal for financiers.
Problems began to take a very serious turn when financiers withdrew. To arrest the further slide down, the NPC opened itself up to more serious negotiations with the administration party. The NPC began dictating terms with the Escudero camp.
Faced with defections and lack of finances, Escudero opened itself up to the Panfilo Ping Lacson group. When NPC learned about this, the party further upped the ante, publicly announcing a Chiz Escudero-Loren Legarda teamup. NPC did that as deference to Escudero not to lose face. Yet, behind the scenes, NPC was actually maneuvering to isolate and delimit Escudero because with him still in the picture, the possible merger between the party and Lakas-KAMPI will not succeed.
Escudero took the cue from Loren Legarda's refusal to name her presidential bet as a sign that the NPC and the administration continues to talk about a coalition. Not to be outmaneuvered, Chiz has no choice but to resign from the party and declare himself a "free agent."
By doing so, Chiz hopes to re-consolidate his mass base support by positioning himself as a non-traditional politician, someone not beholden to any political party nor any big political financier. His resignation can be interpreted as a tactical retreat, a pause so to speak, to arrest further hemorrhaging both in the organizational as well as the financial levels.
Now positioned as a non-trapo presidential bet, Chiz hopes to marshall all progressive groups behind his candidacy, make a movement out of it and get a ratings boost. He needs a shot in the arm, so to speak.
A ratings boost will give his candidacy a fresh start. It will also attract progressives once more, present to them a possibility of forming a third force that would neutralize an Estrada restoration or a Manny Villar win and steal the rug beneath Noynoy's feet. The resignation hopes to encourage groups supportive of Noynoy to abandon the Liberals and shift their support to Chiz Escudero. Doing so would give Chiz a fresh army of volunteers and potential financiers who does not totally support Noynoy's bid, disdain Erap's and fear Villar's camp.
Now, it remains to be seen if this tactical move will benefit Chiz Escudero. His resignation is a veritable clarion call for all progresives to support him. With the prospects still not entirely clear, that is the real reason why Chiz refuses to declare his bid. That signals to everybody that Escudero's organization is really hurting. In the next few days, we will see if Escudero's resignation would even amount to anything.
What if Escudero fails to urge groups to gravitate behind him?
He will probably proceed just to spite, weaken and split Estrada's constituency (that's the reason why Lacson's camp aligned itself with the Escudero camp).
Possible scenarios/results of Escudero's resignation:
1. NPC and admin party will now have full rein for a merger. The possibility of Teodoro-Legarda tandem is now in the works.
2. The Liberal Party will move to convince Chiz to either endorse Noynoy's bid or ask him to join the process of selecting the true People's choice of a non-trapo candidate.
3. Should Chiz proceed as an independent candidate, he will damage Estrada's bid, weaken Noynoy's mass base and eventually allow Manny Villar's victory in the 2010 polls.
This is something which I observed. Instead of relaying the right message, Mrs. Arroyo actually showed her tendency to be really out of touch of reality. That summarizes her entire administration.
For example, she gave us a glowing rundown of economic policies, which, are really excellent. Yet, what she probably failed to say is there is still a growing segment of our population that did not see or even felt this. GDP and GNP are two indicators of economic progress. Yet, for those in the lowest rungs of society, these terms mean nothing.
She talked about the vastly improving ICT sector but what she failed to say is, those who belonged to the 600,000 or so people who got jobs from this sector, all belonged to the educated (at least) segment of the society. Of course, there is some spillover effects, like in the construction business. And indirectly, some segments of the lowest of the poorest classes benefited by working as masons and construction workers. Yet, as I said, this is still a work in progress.
Now, if we ask then, should we then conclude that she failed in her performance as president? Not entirely. She was able to weather all these storms that came in her way---political and economic instabilities. It takes a strong willed leader to survive all that. And for that, let's give her credit.
What is important is, Mrs. Arroyo's administration just proved one glaring fact---we need a change in the system. Honestly, our choices to succeed her lack one or two very important leadership qualities. Of course, these people have their own management styles and concepts of governance. But, these are, at best, unproven. They are all abstractions.
If you're a weak leader in a highly fragmented society such as ours, you'll be gobbled up by rapacious weaker political players all waiting in the wings just to resume their posts in the deposed regime. To her credit, Mrs. Arroyo successfully managed to keep the keel of the state under control. Were it not for her effective management, we would have fallen again to the control of the previous regime owners whom we so accused of failing us before.
This is the open letter of former Vice President Tito Guingona Jr. before the Philippine media today at Club Filipino, Greenhills, San Juan Metro Manila.
JULY 23, 2009
OPEN LETTER
I ASK – THE PEOPLE HAVE A RIGHT TO KNOW !
PRESIDENT GLORIA MACAPAGAL ARROYO
MALACANANG, MANILA
MRS. PRESIDENT,
ON MONDAY, JULY 27 YOU DELIVER YOUR STATE OF THE NATION MESSAGE TO THE FILIPINO PEOPLE.
BEFORE YOU MAKE YOUR VALEDICTORY TO SAY GOOD-BYE TO THE NATION – PERMIT ME TO ASK SOME VITAL QUESTIONS RELATIVE TO THE PERIOD OF GOVERNANCE SINCE YOU ASSUMED THE PRESIDENCY OF THE LAND.
1.) WE ALREADY HAVE A DEFICIT OF 154 BILLION PESOS FOR THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF THIS YEAR….
HOW DO YOU INTEND TO COVER THIS? WILL YOU BORROW OR IMPOSE NEW TAXES?
2.) THERE ARE OFWS WHO URGENTLY NEED TO BE REPATRIATED FROM THE MIDDLE EAST.
THERE EXISTS 2.7 BILLION PESOS WHICH THE PCGG HAS REPORTEDLY TURNED OVER TO THE PRESIDENT’S SOCIAL FUND COMING FROM THE MERALCO DIVIDENDS.
THE REPATRIATION WILL ONLY COST THREE MILLION PESOS.
WHY CAN YOU NOT BRING THEM HOME?
YOU CLAIM TO BE CREATING JOBS HERE, AND YET YOU ARE MARKETING OUR PEOPLE TO WORK OVERSEAS.
ISN’T THIS A POLICY IN CONTRADICTION?
AND EVERYDAY…YOU ARE SENDING THREE THOUSAND OF OUR CITIZENS ABROAD TO TOIL THERE, JUST TO FEED THEIR FAMILIES.
SEVERAL DAYS AGO, TEN FILIPINOS DIED IN A HELICOPTER CRASH IN AFGHANISTAN…
DOES NOT THAT TRAGEDY SHOW THE IRONY THAT SOME FILIPINOS, IN DESPERATION, HAVE TO GO TO A WAR-TORN COUNTRY LIKE AFGHANISTAN BECAUSE THEY CANNOT FIND GAINFUL EMPLOYMENT IN OUR OWN LAND?
3.) IN THE NATIONAL APPROPRIATIONS ACT OF 2009 THERE EXISTS AN ALLOCATION OF 1.2 BILLION PESOS FOR TWO PRESIDENTIAL HELICOPTERS…
YET LAST YEAR, YOU REFUSED TO RELEASE 400 MILLION PESOS FOR AN ANTI-TUBERCULOSIS PROGRAM; A KILLER DISEASE THAT IS RETURNING WITH A VENGEANCE AND IS EXTREMELY DRUG-RESISTANT.
IS THIS AN EQUITABLE WAY TO DISBURSE PUBLIC FUNDS?
4.) IN 2006, YOU ALLOWED PNOC TO ENTER INTO A JOINT VENTURE TO CONDUCT SEISMIC STUDIES WITHIN THE 200-MILE EXCLUSIVE MARITIME ECONOMIC ZONE.
MAY WE KNOW THE RESULTS OF THAT VITAL BUT SECRETIVE AGREEMENT?
IN THE MEANTIME, NOTHING SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN DONE WITHIN THAT ZONE TO BENEFIT THE NATION.
YET THE PEOPLE’S NEED FOR FISH AND OTHER AQUATIC RESOURCES REMAINS UNFULFILLED.
SHOULD GOVERNMENT NOT THEREFORE GALVANIZE CAPITAL AND TECHNOLOGY TO HELP DOMESTIC FIRMS AND FILIPINO FISHERMEN TO DEVELOP MARINE RESOURCES WITHIN THAT VITAL ZONE FOR THE GOOD OF GENERATIONS TO COME?
5.) IN 2007, YOU PROMISED ONE MILLION JOBS EVERY YEAR…
AND YET, OUR UNEMPLOYED SOARED TO 2.9 MILLION IN APRIL 2008, AND THE UNDER-EMPLOYED TO 6.6 MILLION.
WHERE ARE THE JOBS PROMISED?
WHY ARE THE UNEMPLOYED AND THE UNDER-EMPLOYED INCREASING IN NUMBERS?
6.) IN YOUR SONA OF 2006, YOU SAID “HINDI AKO HIHINTO HANGGANG MAGTAGUMPAY ANG ATING LABAN SA KAHIRAPAN…”
YET YOUR RHETORIC SEEMS CONTRARY TO REALITY BECAUSE THE HUNGRY HAVE INCREASED FROM 24 MILLION TO 28 MILLION.
WHY ARE OUR PEOPLE GOING HUNGRY?
WHY IS GOVERNMENT NOT ABLE TO FEED OUR PEOPLE AND BE SELF-SUFFICIENT IN RICE?
NASAAN ANG PAGKAIN SA BAWAT LAMESA?
YOU SAY THAT OUR ECONOMY HAS BEEN GROWING…
AND YET OVER THE PAST 29 QUARTERS….IT IS POVERTY THAT IS GROWING.
WE NOW HAVE AT LEAST 28 MILLION POOR PEOPLE WITH ABOUT TWO MILLION OF THEM WHO CANNOT AFFORD TO BUY THE MINIMUM AMOUNT OF FOOD NEEDED FOR SURVIVAL.
NASAAN ANG PAGKAIN SA BAWAT LAMESA?
WHERE IS THE ECONOMIC GROWTH YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT?
SINO ANG NAKARARAMDAM?
TITO GUINGONA, JR.
The apparent faux pas behind Malacanang's infantile reaction on the alleged sexual abuse of a 13-year old daughter of a PDEA agent is deeper than it looks. First, it just exposed what everybody knew all along---that Malacanang's press office is in a big mess. No one is manning the posts. No one is verifying information going in and out of Malacanang. Maybe many of Arroyo's so-called "friends" have abandoned her already, seeing that she's on her way out? Possibly.
Another question that I would like to ask is this--what was the motivation of PDEA head General Dionisio Santiago on leaking this story out and eventually distancing himself from it? Was Santiago's actions just a ploy for government to again prioritize anti-drugs campaigns? It seems so. Santiago is known as an expert in psywar. He probably thought that the story would be a good one to highlight government's campaign. Or, he probably thought that PDEA needs another boost after that Alabang Boys scandal.
Oh, by the way, what happened to that scandal, Mr. General? Any update?
My sources in Malacanang say the palace is busy with Arroyo's Powerpoint SONA presentation, a variant of which would be presented to US President Barack Obama. I don't make any sense to this since Mrs. Arroyo would just meet Obama for about 20 or 30 minutes or so. What's important is the voluminous briefing papers that Malacanang will submit shortly after that public meeting.
The obvious truth---Malacanang is now a beehive of activity. Its very confusing and chaotic there right now. Time to fly? Yup.
It seems that formal political hostilities would start on July 27. If people think that these things would come to a definitive end after Mrs. Arroyo's SONA, they better prepare for a surprise.
Why?
This early, Nograles already gave us a sneak peek into what Congress would be discussing after the SONA. Nograles said, he'll be pushing for the passage of his baby, House Resolution 747. Unknown to many, this resolution aims to change one of the most contentious economic provision of the Constitution---on foreign ownership of land. Nograles thinks that even those in the opposition favor this amendment since this would lift the nationalist provision of the 1987 Constitution and opens all lands to
HR 747 is more dangerous than HR 1106 because it would provide two things for those big landlords out there---(1) an escape from the implementation of agrarian reform law and (2) a "big killing" opportunity for real estate developers. Nograles thinks that this law would help us but it's the other way around. Why?
The law would surely deprive us of the chance to enjoy the utilisation and exploitation of our own natural resources. In a fast globalizing world, land is one of the biggest capital and the most sought after commodity. The framers of our Constitution recognize the importance of protecting our natural resources from foreign exploitation. That's why they actually put that provision there in the first place. And here comes Nograles trying to pull a fast one with this.
Imagine the entire reclaimed area fronting Manila Bay under foreign ownership. You really can't call the New Nayong Pilipino, Filipino right, since that would probably be either American or Korean owned. How about those mineral rich mountains and valleys? How would you then exploit them when foreigners own them already? Or those rich oil fields in Mindanao? Or our gold mines?
The way to convince foreign investors to stay is simply give them the best reason to do so and it's through equal protection and application of laws. Give them better governance. Ease some restrictions in terms of business processes. But, giving them land? You wish. They'll not stay just because they own land. They'll stay because it's the best business decision for them to do so.
Indonesian militants just attacked two hotels in their capital Jakarta--the Ritz-Carlton and the JW Marriott hotel. CNN said two improvised explosive devices (IED) just went off, killing at least nine people and injuring 50 others. Some of those killed and injured were Westerners. A third bomb was found and immediately detonated.
This is the ninth time that terrorists, possibly belonging to the regional terror group Jemaah Islamiya, have done suicide bombings. Newly elected Indonesian President Bambang Yudyohono condemned the attacks, and vowed to run after the bombers. Since 2000, when the bombings started in Indonesia, the Indonesian police and its anti-terror squads have been quite successful in neutralizing these terror groups. Bombings subsided four years ago with the arrest of the JI's top leaders. Yet, shortly right after the presidential elections a few days ago, bombings started. Were these bombs part of a covert operation to again stress the need for Washington to support Indonesia's anti-terror campaign?
What is more relevant, actually and I think more effective in neutralizing these so called fundamentalist groups is cut them off from the fertile ground where they actually plant their vitriolic ideology. Unlike the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), the Jemaah Islamiya thrives on the promotion of the false belief that all non-believers are fair game. That is false. Even in the Qu'ran and the Sunnah of the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), jihadists struggle against armed enemies, not those who are considered civilians or non-combatants.
In fact, what is being held as a pious act in the Holy Qu'ran is fighting or struggling against disbelief through proselytization or "dawah". A Muslim is only allowed to kill or behead the enemies of Islam if there is a practice of extreme disbelief. If there is still a promise of change, then, the true Slave of Allah Subhanahu Ta'Alah is directed to share the promises of salvation by worshipping the One True God. That is the true message of Allah SWT.
Suicide bombings do not have a concrete and exact doctrinal support in the Noble Qu'ran. You cannot find any Sunnah or any passage in the Holy Qu'ran that promotes suicide. In fact, suicide, by itself, is prohibited and considered a grievous sin. So, how do you explain these things? If suicide bombing does not have doctrinal support, then, this can only be considered as haram to be despised and frown upon by all those who truly worship Allah SWT.
Maganda ang ginawang public forum ng PPCRV at COMELEC. Ipinagsabay nila sa iisang entablado ang mga lider Pilipinong nagnanais makupo ang panguluhan sa 2010. Sa kabila ng panaka-nakang pag-ulan, naroroon sina Senator Loren Legarda, Chiz Escudero, Richard Gordon, Governor Ed Panlilio, dating pangulong Joseph Estrada, at Mar Roxas. Wala roon sina Defense secretary Gilbert Gibo Teodoro, Noli de Castro, Bayani Fernando at Manny Villar.
Hindi na kataka-taka na wala roon sina Noli at Villar, sapagkat sa una pa lamang, nagpahayag na ng hindi kahandaan ang mga ito na pumunta sa mga ganitong forum. Ngunit, sa lahat ng presidentiables, tanging si Manny Villar lamang ang hindi nagpapakita, ni anino niya, sa mga forum na ito. Lahat na, mula kay Legarda hanggang kay Fernando, ay nakalahok na.
Malaking pambabastos sa taumbayan ang ginagawang ito ni Manny Villar. Naturingan pa naman kuno siyang "oposisyon", at may pagmamahal sa kapakanan ng taumbayan, ngunit ngayon pa lang, ipinapakita na ni Villar ang pambabastos. Kung ngayon pa lamang ay wala nang hangad na makipag-ugnayan sa taumbayan itong si Villar, paano pa kung pangulo na siya't nasasa palasyo? Mas lalo siguro siyang hindi makikita ng sambayanan.
Naging mahalaga din ang nasabing forum dahil lumagda sa kasunduan ng pagtataguyod ng malinis na halalan ang mga kandidato gayundin naipahayag nila ang kanilang kahandaang labanan ang cha-cha---mga mahalagang usaping may direktang kinalaman sa pagtataguyod ng kapakanan ng karamihan.
Ibig bagang sabihin ni Villar ay hindi siya naniniwala sa malinis na halalan at hangad niyang kunin ang panguluhan sa pamamagitan ng kanyang kayamanan? Ito rin ba ang indikasyon na ibig ni Villar na baguhin ang saligang batas at tumakbo na lamang bilang Congressman sa ilalim ng isang kongresong pamumunuan ng isang Punong Ministrong ang ngalan ay Arroyo?
Bastos at kawalang galang ang pinapakita ni Villar. Bakit? Takot ba siyang batuhin ng taumbayan dahil sa sanlaksang iskandalong kinasangkutan niya?
