Chiz Escudero's resignation: The True Story

Let's face it---the primary reasons behind Chiz Escudero's decision to resign are: he lacks the funds after his big-ticket financiers withdrew and he is being weakened by defections.

Faced with this prospect, what do you think would an astute politician like Escudero will do?

First, he needs to assess the cause of these defections, both organizationally and financially. Admit it---his ratings went down when Senator Noynoy Aquino entered the political fray. His ratings actually plateued and began to nose-dive when Noynoy's name was included in those whom people chose as Gloria's successor. Why the sudden decrease in ratings?

Two things which hurt Escudero: rumours of a merger of the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) and the administration and Escudero's association with Marcos crony, Danding Cojuangco. Signs of a merger began to percolate as early as August, after government asked the Supreme Court to convert coco levy shares at SMC from ordinary to preferred shares.

With the prospects of a merger, that, surely will completely turn off progressive groups supportive of Chiz Escudero's. Defections began to hurt Escudero's camp, particularly that of the Osmenas who transferred to Noynoy's camp. Osmena reportedly transferred after getting signs that Danding was half-supportive of Escudero's bid. Osmena also took the cue from Lucio Tan about Escudero being "young" and " still unprepared for the presidency." That intensified defections, especially of financiers from the Filipino-Chinese community.

With his organization hemorrhaging from a series of defections, what was left with Chiz was minority political power brokers. He completely lost his mass base support. With the loss of mass base support, that made an impact below ground, reflecting in the surveys. With ratings showing signs of plateau-ing and even nose-diving, that sent a very bad signal for financiers.

Problems began to take a very serious turn when financiers withdrew. To arrest the further slide down, the NPC opened itself up to more serious negotiations with the administration party.  The NPC began dictating terms with the Escudero camp.

Faced with defections and lack of finances, Escudero opened itself up to the Panfilo Ping Lacson group. When NPC learned about this, the party further upped the ante, publicly announcing a Chiz Escudero-Loren Legarda teamup. NPC did that as deference to Escudero not to lose face. Yet, behind the scenes, NPC was actually maneuvering to isolate and delimit Escudero because with him still in the picture, the possible merger between the party and Lakas-KAMPI will not succeed.

Escudero took the cue from Loren Legarda's refusal to name her presidential bet as a sign that the NPC and the administration continues to talk about a coalition. Not to be outmaneuvered, Chiz has no choice but to resign from the party and declare himself a "free agent."

By doing so, Chiz hopes to re-consolidate his mass base support by positioning himself as a non-traditional politician, someone not beholden to any political party nor any big political financier. His resignation can be interpreted as a tactical retreat, a pause so to speak, to arrest further hemorrhaging both in the organizational as well as the financial levels.

Now positioned as a non-trapo presidential bet, Chiz hopes to marshall all progressive groups behind his candidacy, make a movement out of it and get a ratings boost. He needs a shot in the arm, so to speak.

A ratings boost will give his candidacy a fresh start. It will also attract progressives once more, present to them a possibility of forming a third force that would neutralize an Estrada restoration or a Manny Villar win and steal the rug beneath Noynoy's feet. The resignation hopes to encourage groups supportive of Noynoy to abandon the Liberals and shift their support to Chiz Escudero. Doing so would give Chiz a fresh army of volunteers and potential financiers who does not totally support Noynoy's bid, disdain Erap's and fear Villar's camp.

Now, it remains to be seen if this tactical move will benefit Chiz Escudero. His resignation is a veritable clarion call for all progresives to support him. With the prospects still not entirely clear, that is the real reason why Chiz refuses to declare his bid. That signals to everybody that Escudero's organization is really hurting. In the next few days, we will see if Escudero's resignation would even amount to anything.

What if Escudero fails to urge groups to gravitate behind him?

He will probably proceed just to spite, weaken and split Estrada's constituency (that's the reason why Lacson's camp aligned itself with the Escudero camp).

Possible scenarios/results of Escudero's resignation:

1. NPC and admin party will now have full rein for a merger. The possibility of Teodoro-Legarda tandem is now in the works.
2. The Liberal Party will move to convince Chiz to either endorse Noynoy's bid or ask him to join the process of selecting the true People's choice of a non-trapo candidate.
3. Should Chiz proceed as an independent candidate, he will damage Estrada's bid, weaken Noynoy's mass base and eventually allow Manny Villar's victory in the 2010 polls.

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7:23 PM | 0 comments

Legarda's announcement and Its Effects in Phil Politics

Loren Legarda just announced her intention to run for the presidency. However, what is important to know is she's only aligning with former president Joseph Estrada. Now, the question is---will Estrada allow her to be his party's standard bearer?

Estrada, sources say, is psychologically and logistically prepared for the elections. In fact, he already activated his JEEP NI ERAP. Will he allow his supporters to accept Legarda as the party's presidential bet?

Legarda's announcement is actually a tactical move. It secured Loren's position since she's the first one to actually make herself available for the opposition selection process. Now, whether its Estrada-Legarda or Legarda-Estrada, there is now, at least three (3) opposition groups, namely Mar Roxas' Liberal Party and Nacionalista's Manuel Villar. Aside from this, Kaya Natin! Movement also expressed their desire to field their own presidential candidate. There's another one in the wings, the Ang Kapatiran party.

Provided that Ang Kapatiran and Kaya Natin! get at least 1% of total votes, that is still critical in a multi-party election.

Of course, not to mention the Nationalist People's Coalition or NPC whose ranks are slowly swelling with former Lakas-Kampi members, courtesy of former Lakas giant Luis Villafuerte. With Loren's pronouncement, who will then be Chiz Escudero's running mate? Would it now be a merger between Nacionalista and NPC, with Villar just sliding down to V-P? If such a merger does indeed happen, that would be most beneficial for the opposition although not enough to actually defeat a unified administration political force in 2010.

Mar Roxas also suffers from the same dilemma like Chiz. Mar, sources say, is convincing Senator Kiko Pangilinan as running mate, which, for all intents and purposes, is the most logical move since Kiko has his own strong grassroots based organization. That would be a formidable plus factor for Mar. That would propel the Liberal Party to be THE party to beat come 2010 elections.

Now, is it consolation enough to know that even the administration side is being wracked by dissension and a possible breakaway? For one, there's at least four personalities being considered as administration bet---Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro, Noli de Castro, Richard Gordon and Bayani Fernando. Both Teodoro and de Castro already announced their readiness to launch their individual bids. While Gordon says he's prepared to be included in the Lakas-Kampi coalition while Fernando seems determined to do his own thing just to pursue his ridiculous and psychotic political plan.

Anyway, the Lakas-Kampi faces a prospect of a breakaway party coming from either one of Teodoro's or Noli de Castro's camps. Since the prospect of electing a minority president looms on the horizon, another political party will actually do more good than harm for the administration. That would disperse their chances of winning and breaking more of the opposition bailiwicks.

So, what is now the expected political configuration come 2010 elections?

First, a minority president is sure to be elected, provided that Estrada recovers his old and traditional mass base. That is still very much around. That, however, would only happen IF Erap's group marginalize the grassroots organizers of other parties, like those of the Liberal, NPC and Nacionalista. If that happens, then, victory for Erap is very much assured.

Second, if Erap's party fails to do that, then, that would only give Erap a slim chance of winning the elections. That would open the possibility of either Chiz or Mar Roxas snatching victory from Erap.

Third, if the political grassroots machinery of both Chiz and Mar do nor perform at par with Erap's and Lakas-Kampi, then, the possibility of Gilbert Teodoro emerging from the woodwork is very high. Teodoro could squeak a victory under the opposition rug. Remember that in these elections, if these parties match in terms of grassroots organizing, then, the battlefield will shift from mass base support to how extensive their network of generals is. That would be the definitive advantage of the administration party.

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6:48 PM | 0 comments