Legarda's announcement and Its Effects in Phil Politics

Loren Legarda just announced her intention to run for the presidency. However, what is important to know is she's only aligning with former president Joseph Estrada. Now, the question is---will Estrada allow her to be his party's standard bearer?

Estrada, sources say, is psychologically and logistically prepared for the elections. In fact, he already activated his JEEP NI ERAP. Will he allow his supporters to accept Legarda as the party's presidential bet?

Legarda's announcement is actually a tactical move. It secured Loren's position since she's the first one to actually make herself available for the opposition selection process. Now, whether its Estrada-Legarda or Legarda-Estrada, there is now, at least three (3) opposition groups, namely Mar Roxas' Liberal Party and Nacionalista's Manuel Villar. Aside from this, Kaya Natin! Movement also expressed their desire to field their own presidential candidate. There's another one in the wings, the Ang Kapatiran party.

Provided that Ang Kapatiran and Kaya Natin! get at least 1% of total votes, that is still critical in a multi-party election.

Of course, not to mention the Nationalist People's Coalition or NPC whose ranks are slowly swelling with former Lakas-Kampi members, courtesy of former Lakas giant Luis Villafuerte. With Loren's pronouncement, who will then be Chiz Escudero's running mate? Would it now be a merger between Nacionalista and NPC, with Villar just sliding down to V-P? If such a merger does indeed happen, that would be most beneficial for the opposition although not enough to actually defeat a unified administration political force in 2010.

Mar Roxas also suffers from the same dilemma like Chiz. Mar, sources say, is convincing Senator Kiko Pangilinan as running mate, which, for all intents and purposes, is the most logical move since Kiko has his own strong grassroots based organization. That would be a formidable plus factor for Mar. That would propel the Liberal Party to be THE party to beat come 2010 elections.

Now, is it consolation enough to know that even the administration side is being wracked by dissension and a possible breakaway? For one, there's at least four personalities being considered as administration bet---Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro, Noli de Castro, Richard Gordon and Bayani Fernando. Both Teodoro and de Castro already announced their readiness to launch their individual bids. While Gordon says he's prepared to be included in the Lakas-Kampi coalition while Fernando seems determined to do his own thing just to pursue his ridiculous and psychotic political plan.

Anyway, the Lakas-Kampi faces a prospect of a breakaway party coming from either one of Teodoro's or Noli de Castro's camps. Since the prospect of electing a minority president looms on the horizon, another political party will actually do more good than harm for the administration. That would disperse their chances of winning and breaking more of the opposition bailiwicks.

So, what is now the expected political configuration come 2010 elections?

First, a minority president is sure to be elected, provided that Estrada recovers his old and traditional mass base. That is still very much around. That, however, would only happen IF Erap's group marginalize the grassroots organizers of other parties, like those of the Liberal, NPC and Nacionalista. If that happens, then, victory for Erap is very much assured.

Second, if Erap's party fails to do that, then, that would only give Erap a slim chance of winning the elections. That would open the possibility of either Chiz or Mar Roxas snatching victory from Erap.

Third, if the political grassroots machinery of both Chiz and Mar do nor perform at par with Erap's and Lakas-Kampi, then, the possibility of Gilbert Teodoro emerging from the woodwork is very high. Teodoro could squeak a victory under the opposition rug. Remember that in these elections, if these parties match in terms of grassroots organizing, then, the battlefield will shift from mass base support to how extensive their network of generals is. That would be the definitive advantage of the administration party.

Read More

6:48 PM | 0 comments

Gilbert Teodoro's replacement and palace moves

Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro has become a political liability, says a very close palace associate of Philippine president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

First, he's a professional. Second, he seems to have developed quite a nationalist streak, different from the official yet unwritten ideological platform of fascism of Mrs. Arroyo. And lastly, he already has his own supporters from the military, a very solid one, composed not just active members but also retired generals.

Former Senator Frank Drilon's revelation seems to jibe with information about Gibo's possible "re-assignment" to the justice porfolio. Teodoro has made public his opposition to any declaration of a state of emergency or martial rule. He vowed yesterday to stand up against it, which is quite surprising since this is not the official palace policy. Whenever the issue crops up, palace officials keep or refuse to say anything for or against it, meaning, that the palace is keeping its options open for this.

Aside from this, what caused the silent rumblings inside began when Gibo celebrated his birthday. From the purview of Arroyo's closest advisers, that one was a virtual Munich Putsch. It came a few weeks after the visit of US Defense secretary Robert Gates. Gates, as you know, gave Teodoro a very favorable endorsement, which some palace insiders interpreted as a direct message to the palace to push ahead of the elections. That differs from the previous plan of some of Arroyo's closest advisers who are pushing for a term extension. Remember that that was the time when Arroyo's lieutenants were actively networking for signatures for House Resolution 1109. Gates, the highest Obama official to visit the Philippines first, was quite emphatic when he told the official Washington line, which, a few days ago, was reiterated by US ambassador Kristie Kenney. Some interpreted it as an expression of concern and shows that Washington knows what some palace people are thinking.

Close Arroyo insiders think that if push comes to shove, Washington will endorse Teodoro as an alternative "transition" leader in case Arroyo falls from power. This is a strong possibility, given that Teodoro enjoys the support both of active and retired AFP and PNP generals.

This prospect is not being welcomed inside the palace. Arroyo has this tendency to be "extra jealous" when it comes to "sharing power". In fact, Arroyo always wants to be the center of power. That's why, at the very beginning of her regime, she instituted a policy (unwritten) of appointing close associates to different departments while tolerating political appointees. Arroyo's leadership style is both anachronistic and practical.

People close to Arroyo knows that it would be quite hard to ease Teodoro out of the defense portfolio, because of Danding Cojuangco. There's always a solution though.

Bombings and instability. This solves the problem. Malacanang can use this as a ruse to justify former General Hermogenes Ebdane's transfer from DPWH to the defense department.

With Ebdane at the helm of defense, that would allow more space for the PMA Class of 1978 to move or maneuver to highly sensitive posts within the AFP and the PNP. There's a clincher though---that would open the military establishment to more personal appointments instead of professional ones.

And even fan the flames of more adventurism within.

Read More

7:19 PM | 0 comments